This is a belated sequel to this post.
**First and foremost, datamine showcases 2 open slots for possible Mythicals, meaning we see Gen 8 continue at least for 2021.
**Secondly, Nintendo themselves have stated that they want to prolong the Switch's life to more than 6 years. We don't know what this means, but it likely means no successor until 2023, which is to be expected.
Now that is over let's look at the handheld release schedule (JAPAN ONLY, no Virtual Boy):
**First and foremost, datamine showcases 2 open slots for possible Mythicals, meaning we see Gen 8 continue at least for 2021.
**Secondly, Nintendo themselves have stated that they want to prolong the Switch's life to more than 6 years. We don't know what this means, but it likely means no successor until 2023, which is to be expected.
Now that is over let's look at the handheld release schedule (JAPAN ONLY, no Virtual Boy):
- Game Boy: 1989
- Game Boy Color: 1998
- Game Boy Advance: 2001
- Nintendo DS: 2004
- Nintendo 3DS: 2011
- Switch: 2017 (Switch Lite: 2019)
Looking at this, 6 years seems to be lower-end expectation.
For hardware revisions (3DS only):
- Base 3DS: 2011
- 3DS XL: 2012
- 2DS (Western): 2013
- NN3DS/XL (Japan & Australia): 2014
- NN3DS/XL(Western): 2015
- 2DS (Japan): 2016
- N2DSXL: 2017
All years 3DS was active on there were a release of sorts with Japan getting a new release roughly 2 years.
So,
2017: Switch
2019: Switch Lite
2021: Switch New?
2023: Switch New Lite?
Since there will a new Pokémon game each year, 2021 would coincide with Crystal Let's GO remakes, and 2023 would coincide with Gen 9's second game and presumably the Switch's successor.
In terms of specs, Switch fails to deliver TFLOP values, being stuck around 393 GFLOPs, this is largely due to weaker GPU. Using this as value, next Switch should be double the power of the current Switch both docked and undocked, unless NVIDIA shifts to TSMC's 7nm+*. This means it will be half the power of the original Xbone(in terms of FLOPS, in terms of CPU it will be superior). Nonetheless, both processing speed and RAM should double in the next mid-gen update for Switch, and still increase for the true Switch successor.
*Though it should be noted that Orin, the latest Tegra chip for self-driving cards is expected to be in 7nm process. Nonetheless, it won't be in the Switch's update, possibly its successor might have it though.
Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tegra Both the current Switch revision and Switch Lite use the new 16nm Tegra X1, which can do about 600 Gflops at max, which is higher than regular Switch's 400 flops. But since Switch's RAM is half of the max ram of Tegra 214 (4 GB instead of 8) the actual performance is probably around 468 GFLOPs.
Edit(07.01.2020): According to DigiTimes, Nintendo is seeking to release a new variant of Switch in the middle of 2020, with the production starting in the end of first quarter of 2020. Since these quarters are according to Japanese Fiscal Year, this would mean production will begin around June with the release being in September/October/November, which will be consistent with DSi (November 2008 in Japan) and NN3DS (October 2014 in Japan).
This would also mean Switch's successor would release before April 2023, before the start of the new fiscal year, to be consistent with 3DS (February 2011) and Switch (March 2017).
Switch Pro Lite would then release in late 2021 if there is a Let's GO Crystal game, and late 2022 if 2021 is a gap year for Pokémon.
It is unlikely that there will be more iterations for Switch Pro besides slim ones, unless Switch Pro is dock only, in which case we would have the portable version in 2021 and Lite version in 2022.
Edit (01.02.2020):
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/442267/nintendo-we-have-no-plans-to-launch-a-new-nintendo-switch-model-during-2020/
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/442271/nintendo-plans-to-continue-to-support-their-games-with-dlc/
Nintendo confirmed that they do not intend to release a Switch SKU in 2020, which means we are NOT getting a Switch Pro or a new SKU like a magnesium-alloy case in not just calendar 2020, but also fiscal 2020 (April 2020-March 2021).
This means the rumored Switch version will be released in November 2021, unless Nintendo decides to release a new Switch successor in November 2021-March 2022 timeframe, which is perfectly plausible as Switch was released in the tail-end of the fiscal 2016 (March 2017).
This would also follow more closely in the line of DSi, even though 3DS was technically released in fiscal 2010(February 2011).
Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tegra Both the current Switch revision and Switch Lite use the new 16nm Tegra X1, which can do about 600 Gflops at max, which is higher than regular Switch's 400 flops. But since Switch's RAM is half of the max ram of Tegra 214 (4 GB instead of 8) the actual performance is probably around 468 GFLOPs.
Edit(07.01.2020): According to DigiTimes, Nintendo is seeking to release a new variant of Switch in the middle of 2020, with the production starting in the end of first quarter of 2020. Since these quarters are according to Japanese Fiscal Year, this would mean production will begin around June with the release being in September/October/November, which will be consistent with DSi (November 2008 in Japan) and NN3DS (October 2014 in Japan).
This would also mean Switch's successor would release before April 2023, before the start of the new fiscal year, to be consistent with 3DS (February 2011) and Switch (March 2017).
Switch Pro Lite would then release in late 2021 if there is a Let's GO Crystal game, and late 2022 if 2021 is a gap year for Pokémon.
It is unlikely that there will be more iterations for Switch Pro besides slim ones, unless Switch Pro is dock only, in which case we would have the portable version in 2021 and Lite version in 2022.
Edit (01.02.2020):
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/442267/nintendo-we-have-no-plans-to-launch-a-new-nintendo-switch-model-during-2020/
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/442271/nintendo-plans-to-continue-to-support-their-games-with-dlc/
Nintendo confirmed that they do not intend to release a Switch SKU in 2020, which means we are NOT getting a Switch Pro or a new SKU like a magnesium-alloy case in not just calendar 2020, but also fiscal 2020 (April 2020-March 2021).
This means the rumored Switch version will be released in November 2021, unless Nintendo decides to release a new Switch successor in November 2021-March 2022 timeframe, which is perfectly plausible as Switch was released in the tail-end of the fiscal 2016 (March 2017).
This would also follow more closely in the line of DSi, even though 3DS was technically released in fiscal 2010(February 2011).
Edit (07.07.2021):
https://www.vgchartz.com/article/449636/nintendo-switch-oled-model-announced-launches-october-8-for-34999/
Instead of a Pro version, Nintendo announced an OLED version of Switch with slight enhancements for October 8th 2021.
We will likely get a Lite version in the coming years, but this probably means Nintendo does not intend Switch to remain relevant for long, but Coronavirus might artificially extend its lifespan regardless, just like 2007-2009 crash expanded the lifespans of PS3 and Xbox 360.
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